Reducing uncertainties in decadal variability of the global carbon budget with multiple datasets
Identifieur interne : 001832 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001831; suivant : 001833Reducing uncertainties in decadal variability of the global carbon budget with multiple datasets
Auteurs : Wei Li [France] ; Philippe Ciais [France] ; Yilong Wang [France] ; Shushi Peng [France] ; Grégoire Broquet [France] ; Ashley P. Ballantyne ; Josep G. Canadell [Australie] ; Leila Cooper ; Pierre Friedlingstein [Royaume-Uni] ; Corinne Le Quéré [Royaume-Uni] ; Ranga B. Myneni ; Glen P. Peters [Norvège] ; Shilong Piao [République populaire de Chine] ; Julia Pongratz [Allemagne]Source :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
The conventional approach of calculating the global carbon budget makes the land sink the most uncertain of all budget terms. This is because, rather than being constrained by observations, it is inferred as a residual in the budget equation. Here, we overcome this limitation by performing a Bayesian fusion of different available observation-based estimates of decadal carbon fluxes. This approach reduces the uncertainty in the land sink by 41% and in the ocean sink by 46%. These results are significant because they give unprecedented confidence in the role of the increasing land sink in regulating atmospheric CO2, and shed light on the past decadal trend.
Url:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1603956113
PubMed: 27799533
PubMed Central: 5135338
Affiliations:
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of the global carbon budget with multiple datasets</title><author><name sortKey="Li, Wei" sort="Li, Wei" uniqKey="Li W" first="Wei" last="Li">Wei Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives–CNRS–Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin,<institution>Université Paris-Saclay</institution>, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ciais, Philippe" sort="Ciais, Philippe" uniqKey="Ciais P" first="Philippe" last="Ciais">Philippe Ciais</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives–CNRS–Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin,<institution>Université Paris-Saclay</institution>, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Yilong" sort="Wang, Yilong" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yilong" last="Wang">Yilong Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives–CNRS–Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin,<institution>Université Paris-Saclay</institution>, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Peng, Shushi" sort="Peng, Shushi" uniqKey="Peng S" first="Shushi" last="Peng">Shushi Peng</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives–CNRS–Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin,<institution>Université Paris-Saclay</institution>, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Broquet, Gregoire" sort="Broquet, Gregoire" uniqKey="Broquet G" first="Grégoire" last="Broquet">Grégoire Broquet</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives–CNRS–Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin,<institution>Université Paris-Saclay</institution>, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ballantyne, Ashley P" sort="Ballantyne, Ashley P" uniqKey="Ballantyne A" first="Ashley P." last="Ballantyne">Ashley P. Ballantyne</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Science,<institution>University of Montana</institution>, Missoula,<addr-line>MT</addr-line> 59812;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Canadell, Josep G" sort="Canadell, Josep G" uniqKey="Canadell J" first="Josep G." last="Canadell">Josep G. Canadell</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Global Carbon Project,<institution>Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>, Canberra, ACT 2601,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cooper, Leila" sort="Cooper, Leila" uniqKey="Cooper L" first="Leila" last="Cooper">Leila Cooper</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Science,<institution>University of Montana</institution>, Missoula,<addr-line>MT</addr-line> 59812;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Friedlingstein, Pierre" sort="Friedlingstein, Pierre" uniqKey="Friedlingstein P" first="Pierre" last="Friedlingstein">Pierre Friedlingstein</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences,<institution>University of Exeter</institution>, Exeter EX4 4QF,<country>United Kingdom</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Le Quere, Corinne" sort="Le Quere, Corinne" uniqKey="Le Quere C" first="Corinne" last="Le Quéré">Corinne Le Quéré</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,<institution>University of East Anglia</institution>, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ,<country>United Kingdom</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Myneni, Ranga B" sort="Myneni, Ranga B" uniqKey="Myneni R" first="Ranga B." last="Myneni">Ranga B. Myneni</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">Department of Earth and Environment,<institution>Boston University</institution>, Boston,<addr-line>MA</addr-line> 02215;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Peters, Glen P" sort="Peters, Glen P" uniqKey="Peters G" first="Glen P." last="Peters">Glen P. Peters</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo</institution>, 0349 Oslo,<country>Norway</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Norvège</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Piao, Shilong" sort="Piao, Shilong" uniqKey="Piao S" first="Shilong" last="Piao">Shilong Piao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8">Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,<institution>Peking University</institution>, Beijing 100871,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pongratz, Julia" sort="Pongratz, Julia" uniqKey="Pongratz J" first="Julia" last="Pongratz">Julia Pongratz</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff9"><institution>Max Planck Institute for Meteorology</institution>, 20146 Hamburg,<country>Germany</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Significance</title><p>The conventional approach of calculating the global carbon budget makes the land sink the most uncertain of all budget terms. This is because, rather than being constrained by observations, it is inferred as a residual in the budget equation. Here, we overcome this limitation by performing a Bayesian fusion of different available observation-based estimates of decadal carbon fluxes. This approach reduces the uncertainty in the land sink by 41% and in the ocean sink by 46%. These results are significant because they give unprecedented confidence in the role of the increasing land sink in regulating atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>, and shed light on the past decadal trend.</p></div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Australie</li><li>France</li><li>Norvège</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Ballantyne, Ashley P" sort="Ballantyne, Ashley P" uniqKey="Ballantyne A" first="Ashley P." last="Ballantyne">Ashley P. 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